The Head of Lake Whakatipu natural hazards adaptation programme aims to build resilience to the impacts of flooding, landslides, earthquakes, and the effects of climate change at the Head of Lake Whakatipu, including Glenorchy and Kinloch. 

We started the programme because this area faces a complex mix of natural hazards, a changing landscape and climate, as well as future uncertainties, including social and economic factors.

The setting at the Head of the Lake means we need to take a comprehensive approach to managing the hazards, one that takes a long-term view, encompasses all types of natural hazards, and works with the community to develop resilience. Reactive or very localised responses are likely to have only shorter-term benefits (it even brings negative outcomes for the future). So, the most effective way to deal with this type of complex setting is to take a long-term, holistic adaptation view and working with the community and different partners to develop resilience.

The ORC is taking the same approach in other areas facing complex challenges with natural hazards such as South Dunedin, the Taieri Plains, and the Clutha Delta. This work programme is considering all types of natural hazards and their possible impacts – this includes hazards associated with floodplains and alluvial fans, such as flooding and erosion, along with seismic and geological hazards.

We expect that some hazards and their risks will change over time, and they may become more likely or have greater impacts due to changes in the landscape or climate. You can find out more about factors that are expected to increase the future flooding hazards for the Dart and Rees floodplains on our research and reports page.

Managing these natural hazard threats is a difficult challenge, and there is no simple solution to address them, but we need to adapt. We have established a Head of the Lake natural hazards adaptation programme. By working closely with the community, mana whenua, and partners on this programme, we can build resilience for the area.

This programme uses an approach called Dynamic Adaptive Pathways Planning (also referred to as DAPP, or “Adaptation Pathways”).

This approach was developed by the Ministry for the Environment as a blueprint for community-led decision-making in areas affected by natural events and climate change.

This programme is following the Dynamic Adaptive Pathways Planning (also referred to as DAPP, or ‘Adaptation Pathways’). This is the approach we are using to develop a longer-term natural hazards adaptation strategy for the area at the head of Lake Wakatipu.

This ‘Adaptation Pathways’ approach has been developed by the Ministry for the Environment as a blueprint for community-led decision-making in areas affected by natural events and climate change.

This is a hazard management approach developed specifically to help plan and adapt for situations where the future is uncertain – it allows for flexible and adaptive decision-making, and for planning even when there may be uncertainty about the timing or impacts of future changes.

It’s an approach that helps develop long-term responses to natural hazards affected by environmental changes – such as flooding or coastal hazards affected by climate changes. Other types of natural hazards, such as geological or seismic events like landsliding or liquefaction, will also be considered within this approach as part of the wider multi-hazard context.

This adaptation approach is often shown as a 10-step decision cycle (as below) and can be simplified as the sequence of five steps shown in the figure below.

The programme is led by the ORC Natural Hazards team. The team works closely with other ORC teams, Queenstown Lakes District Council, Civil Defence Emergency Management Otago, as well as the community and mana whenua partners (Aukaha and Te Ao Marama Inc).

The programme has delivered significant outputs to date. These include:

• One natural hazards adaptation strategy for the Head of Lake Whakatipu area
• One liquefaction hazard assessment
• Nine supporting studies on hydrological, geotechnical, and geomorphic conditions
• One social and economic impact assessment (two phases)
• One natural hazards risk assessment
• Five natural hazards mitigation studies
• One cultural values statement
• One mana whenua assessment of adaptation responses
• 18 community engagement activities
• 45 editions of a community newsletter
• One webpage for the programme
• Three environmental monitoring stations installed
• One flood forecast model developed and tested

The specific mix of natural hazards and physical processes in the head of Lake Wakatipu is unique to this area, but many other locations in Otago are exposed to the potential impacts of other combinations of natural hazard events.

ORC works to understand these hazards through hazard investigations and has a responsibility to manage hazard impacts through the development of adaptation or hazard management work programmes and long-term strategies.

This type of natural hazards adaptation and hazard management programme is a usual part of the ORC natural hazards work activities. ORC has previously completed, or has programmes underway or planned, to develop natural hazards management strategies for many locations within Otago, including:

• South Dunedin (the ‘South Dunedin Future’ project)
• Milton and the Tokomairiro Plain flooding hazards (the ‘Milton 2060’ project)
• Flood risk management strategy for the communities of Lake Wanaka and Wakatipu
• Balclutha and the Clutha Delta – river flooding and coastal hazards
• Water of Leith and Lindsay Creek (Dunedin City) flooding hazards
• Lower Taieri Plain flooding hazards
• Roxburgh debris flow hazards
• Middlemarch flooding and alluvial fan hazards

The programme is being led by the ORC Natural Hazards Team, which includes:

• Jean-Luc Payan, ORC Natural Hazards Manager
• Pete Weir, Team Leader Natural Hazards Analysis
• Tim van Woerden, Senior Natural Hazards Analyst
• Nathan Anderson, Senior Flood Hazard Analyst
• Julion Wright, Natural Hazards Analyst
• Jen Simon, Natural Hazards Analyst
• Ann Conroy, Team Leader Natural Hazard Adaptation
• Toan Nguyen, Senior Natural Hazard Adaptation Specialist
• Ariane Bray, Natural Hazard Adaptation Specialist

Several consultants are providing specialist advice and input for the programme:

• Dr Paula Blackett from Urban Intelligence is providing expertise in developing and implementing the adaptation signals, triggers and pathways approach to natural hazards and risks. 
• Professor James Brasington from the University of Canterbury is providing technical expertise in river morphology and floodplain hazards. 
• The Tonkin + Taylor hazards team has completed natural hazard assessments and is providing geotechnical advice. 
• The Beca risk assessment and social outcomes teams are providing advice on risk and socio-economic impact. 
• Aukaha and Te Ao Marama are representing the mana whenua and are providing cultural direction and expertise. Aukaha has completed a cultural values statement and a mana whenua assessment of adaptation possible responses for the strategy.