The natural hazards adaptation strategy for the Head of Lake Whakatipu area was adopted by the Otago Regional Council (ORC) in May 2025. Implementation of the Strategy began in Mid-2025.
The Strategy represents the successful culmination of an over five-year process that included technical investigations, collaborative planning, and inclusive community and stakeholder engagement.
The Head of Lake Whakatipu Natural Hazards Adaptation Strategy (the Strategy) was developed by ORC Natural Hazards team, in collaboration with the community as well as with Queenstown Lakes District Council, Civil Defence Emergency Management Otago, mana whenua partners, technical experts and different ORC teams.
It provides a common direction for our natural hazards management and adaptation planning and decisions at Head of Lake Whakatipu (Whakatipu Waimāori). It also supports everyday decision-making by individuals and the community.
Natural hazard resilience at Head of Lake Whakatipu is reliant on a strong foundation of existing responses. Our Action Plan aims to build and improve upon our foundation.
As the landscape and climate change, we may need to consider big questions — do we do the same? Do things better? Do things differently? Our Future Toolbox contains possible responses that may help us adapt further as we face future changes.
Possible future responses are high-level concepts at this stage (not commitments). More information about detailed costs, benefits and risks would be required to inform future decision-making.
Over time, we will review, adjust, and improve this first version of the Strategy. We will also track progress on our actions and check in with the community.
Mana whenua, key stakeholders, and the community are encouraged to continue their involvement in implementation and future versions.
The Strategy is a non-statutory plan. It does not carry decision-making power or create any legal obligations. Other statutory processes, such as long-term plans, also offer opportunities for public participation and alignment. This highlights the shared responsibility in managing natural hazards in the area, now and in the future.
The Strategy has been developed using the Dynamic Adaptive Pathways Planning approach which includes the key following steps:
- What is happening? Study our changing weather and environment. Assess the hazards and risks facing the Head of Lake Whakatipu. Gain a shared understanding of the science and local knowledge.
- What matters most? Work with the community and mana whenua to understand what they value most about the Head of Lake Whakatipu area — including places, things, and other taoka (treasures).
- What can we do? Identify a long list of possible responses for managing risk and adapting to change. Evaluate the high-level pros and cons.
- Make it happen. Combine the existing responses that we rely on into a strong foundation and identify possible future pathways (covering different areas and timeframes). Agree on signals, triggers and events that mean it’s time to put different parts of the plan into action.
- Create a plan. Capture everything in an Adaptation Strategy. Action what we can within current constraints. Keep the plan moving forward.
- Is it working? Our environment and climate keep changing and we do too. Keep monitoring for success and for signals that it’s time to shift pathways.
- Improve things bit by bit. Check in with the community, review and update the Strategy regularly. Take advantage of new opportunities.
- Make plans and recommendations that align with council strategies, policies and processes, and integrate with business-as-usual workstreams.
- Work in partnership with mana whenua, coordinate and collaborate with other agencies and communities with a common purpose to incorporate adaptation into what we do.
- Build connections across and between agencies and work together effectively across work programmes.
- Encourage and amplify existing good practice and initiatives.
- Point us in the same direction with a common understanding of the physical environment to build from.
- Continue to build understanding of natural hazard risks, uncertainties and opportunities now and in the future that come with natural hazards and climate change.
- Increase awareness around current and future natural hazards risks and impacts of climate change as well as effective adaptation responses.
- Build capacity around adaptation and support communities and decision-makers to take advantage of opportunities.
- Consider ways to incorporate mātauraka Kāi Tahu into the decision-making frameworks.
- Share new information as it becomes available.
- Lead and support others to actively manage and reduce risk to natural hazard and impacts of climate change.
- Support and enable community-led action and behavioural change.
- Promote community safety by managing and reducing risk from natural hazards and impacts of climate change.
- Strengthen communities, businesses and organisations so that they are well-prepared for natural hazard events and are better able to cope and recover.
- Lead the way and support others to increase the resilience of infrastructure, resources and systems.
- Encourage responsible management of resources and infrastructure that prioritises resilience, sustainability, and avoids maladaptation such as unintentional negative outcomes.
- Provide information for individuals, businesses and agencies to consider natural hazard risks and the impacts of climate change as part of planning and development processes.
- Support integration of traditional and modern local knowledge into planning and development of local infrastructure.
- Support and enable nature-based solutions and principles to adapt to natural hazard risks and climate change and deliver other socio-economic and environmental benefits.
- Integrate adaptation across councils’ work programmes to deliver natural hazards, biodiversity and wider environmental outcomes.
Development and implementation of the Strategy is guided by key principles.
- Take a holistic and long-term view to natural hazards risk management and adaptation efforts.
- Partner and collaborate with mana whenua, partner agencies, communities and stakeholders.
- Make robust decisions using the best available evidence.
- Be community-centred.
- Be flexible and adjust as we go.
- Consider co-benefits for adaptation efforts to achieve complementary goals.
- Promote fairness and equity for and between communities and across generations.
- Uphold Te Tiriti o Waitangi.
- Align with national-level direction and policies.
- Adaptation efforts should work with nature as much as possible.
- Be open and accountable. Ensure progress is transparently communicated.
- Consider cost-effectiveness and practicality to ensure that resources are used efficiently and that they reduce risks to what is reasonable, practicable and acceptable to partners and the community.
People provided many insights into what matters most to them at the Head of the Lake. Together, these values make up a set of community outcome statements that provide guidance for decision making now and into the future.
- A community that feels supported and safe from the impacts of natural hazards.
- Residents feel at home, connected to their environment and supported by the experience of community.
- A beautiful environment and a feeling of connection with nature.
- Sustainable, functioning ecosystems.
- The opportunity to make a living.
- Be resilient and self-determining.
- Functional, resilient and accessible infrastructure, support services and emergency response.
- Heritage is safeguarded and accessible.
- A healthy community that promotes the wellbeing of all.
Some overarching community values emerged from all the feedback and engagement activities over five years:
- Lifestyle and wellbeing — people feel safe to do their day-to-day activities. A sustainable, self-sufficient and resilient community.
- Environment — sense of stewardship and connection to nature — mountains, rivers, lakes. A place for wildlife and biodiversity to thrive.
- Belonging — a feeling of home. A strong sense of community where people support and take care of each other.
- Recreation — being able to enjoy recreation and links to the broader environment. A place for residents and visitors to enjoy together.
To uphold the mana of kā rūnaka, it is crucial that mana whenua have authority over how their manawa (aspirations) for the future are portrayed and represented in this Strategy and in future actions.
Aukaha, as mana whenua representative, identified key values that offer a glimpse into a mana whenua worldview with respect to the area and the programme of work.
Ka Uara — core cultural values:
- Mana — mana whenua are leaders, influencers and partners.
- Mauri — protect and enhance the mauri (life force) of the Head of Lake Whakatipu, now and well into the future.
- Whakapapa — the traditional authority of mana whenua at the Head of the Lake is recognised ancestral rights which give mana whenua the mana and kaitiaki responsibilities.
Additional Kāi Tahu values include:
- Ki uta ki tai — interconnectedness of the whole environment, commonly translates to ‘from the mountains to the sea’.
- Kaitiakitaka — intergenerational and inherited responsibility and stewardship on behalf of future generations.
- Manaakitaka — expressing aroha, hospitality, generosity and mutual respect. Processes and decisions that enable positive social outcomes and support wellbeing.
- Mahika kai — ability to, and access to, gather or harvest resources. Ensure a healthy functioning ecosystem and sustainable harvesting practices.
- Wai Māori and Wai Ora — importance of protecting and enhancing the wellbeing
Natural Hazards at the Head of Lake Whakatipu
The Head of Lake Whakatipu is a dynamic landscape with a wide range of natural hazard risks. It has a high potential for cascading hazard scenarios, where one hazard triggers another — for example, landslides triggered by earthquake shaking. Ongoing landscape and climate changes add further uncertainty to future hazard patterns.
Terrain and Slope Hazards
Landslides are common in the Dart and Rees catchments due to unstable geology. Rainfall, earthquakes, and changes in land use can all trigger landslides.
Tributary Hazards
Side streams feeding into the rivers and lake can generate localised hazards, such as erosion, flooding, and sediment deposition. Some of these streams also have the potential to produce debris floods — fast-moving surges of sediment, rock, and water — which are highly dangerous and destructive.
Climate Change
By 2090, winter and spring rainfall are projected to increase in the catchments, along with more intense storms and a greater number of heavy rainfall days. As a result, flood flows are expected to increase in magnitude.
Floodplain Hazards
The Dart and Rees catchments naturally deliver large quantities of sediment to the rivers. River channels and deltas are constantly evolving in response.
Low-lying areas adjacent to the Dart and Rees rivers are prone to flooding. Floodwaters can damage land, property, and infrastructure, and may interrupt road access. Impacts can include erosion, inundation, and sediment left behind by floodwater.
Bank erosion currently threatens Kinloch Road, due to the westward migration of the Dart River’s active channel. Sediment build-up in the active channel beds will continue, and future changes in river paths are likely when the rivers break out into new, lower-lying areas of the floodplain.
The growth of the river delta is ongoing. Where the delta expands depends on where the main river channels discharge sediment — which will vary as channels shift. This process affects the effectiveness of structures such as the Kinloch wharf, Glenorchy jetty, Rees River bridge, and floodbanks.
Earthquake Hazards
Earthquakes in the area occur when built-up strain is suddenly released along fault lines. Several mapped faults exist in the wider area. Notable nearby faults include:
- West Whakatipu Fault (approx. 2 km west of Kinloch)
- Moonlight Fault (approx. 15 km east of Glenorchy)
- Alpine Fault, about 55 km from Glenorchy, is the most significant
There is a 75% probability of a rupture on the Alpine Fault in the next 50 years, with an 80% chance the quake will exceed magnitude 8.
Earthquakes pose a direct hazard through ground shaking and can trigger cascading hazards such as:
- Landslides
- Liquefaction
- Lateral spreading
Liquefaction occurs when ground shaking causes sediments to behave like a liquid, potentially damaging roads, buildings, and underground infrastructure. Lateral spreading can cause ground deformation and cracking.
In Kinloch and Glenorchy, strong shaking is expected to pose a high risk to buildings and infrastructure, though with relatively low risk of injuries or fatalities. All lower-lying parts of Glenorchy — particularly in the north and west — are vulnerable to liquefaction. The risk of lateral spreading is greatest near the lake and decreases with distance.
Potential Alpine Fault Magnitude 8 (AF8) Scenario
AF8 is a credible science-based scenario for emergency planning. In this event:
- Central Otago could experience 2–3 minutes of strong shaking in a South-to-North rupture.
- Likely cascading hazards include snow/ice avalanches, landslides, and rockfalls, possibly cutting off roads and isolating communities.
- Landslide-triggered tsunamis in lakes are possible, making it vital for residents to know the “Long or Strong, Get Gone” evacuation message.
- Thousands of tourists may be stranded and require support, with possible disruptions to power and telecommunications.
More information and preparation resources are available at www.af8.org.nz.
Hazards Along the Queenstown–Glenorchy Road
This is the only road access to the Head of the Lake for both residents and visitors. It is essential for travel to employment, education, healthcare, goods, and services.
The road crosses multiple hazard zones, including:
- Debris flows
- Flooding
- Landslides and rockfalls
An example is Shepherds Hut Creek, where a debris flow in 2022 disrupted road access.
Buckler Burn Hazards
The Buckler Burn has unstable terrain, high sediment supply, and frequent channel movement. Over time, it has built a large alluvial fan and delta, on which much of Glenorchy is situated.
- In major floods, it may break out along Oban Street, causing minor local flooding.
- Bank erosion threatens a nearby section of Queenstown–Glenorchy Road.
- Debris flows from Buckler Burn are unlikely to reach Glenorchy, but channel migration northwards toward the township is a future possibility.
Dart and Rees River Hazards
The Dart and Rees rivers are highly dynamic, with:
- High sediment loads
- Active channel migration
- Ongoing delta growth into Lake Whakatipu
The Glenorchy Lagoon and Rees–Glenorchy floodbank provide limited protection from smaller flood events. In larger events (e.g., 20-year average recurrence or more), the floodbank may be overtopped, leading to flooding in northern Glenorchy.
Lake Whakatipu Hazards
High lake levels can flood low-lying areas of Kinloch and Glenorchy.
Lake flooding typically results from a series of rainfall events and can persist for days to weeks. Although lake levels rise more slowly than river floods, and offer more time to respond, the impacts can still be significant.
Natural hazard resilience at the Head of Lake Whakatipu is reliant on a strong foundation of existing responses.
How are we planning to enhance and improve?
Existing responses are an important part of the picture and go partway towards addressing the needs of the area. Our Action Plan will build and improve upon this base to increase resilience.
- Hazard awareness (societal, behavioural, and institutional)
- Emergency readiness and response
- Flood mitigation and protection
- Flood monitoring network (rainfall and water level stations) and flood data
- Flood monitoring, forecasting, and warning
- Existing low-level Rees River flood protection by Glenorchy floodbank
- Existing river management (vegetation and gravel)
4. Road access — existing maintenance, reactive repair, and planned works
- Glenorchy–Queenstown Road
- Kinloch and Glenorchy–Paradise local road system
5. Existing boat access at Kinloch and Glenorchy
6. Private property resilience
- Household emergency planning
- Property and business insurance (adjust coverage as needed)
- Consider local risk and hazard information when property decisions are required (e.g. buying/selling)
7. Policy and planning — existing land use zoning, rules, and building controls
The Strategy: Adaptive Management Approach
The Strategy uses an adaptive management approach, which aims to try to avoid unacceptable conditions by monitoring signals and triggers and using these to guide the timing of future decision making. Adaptation thresholds for the Head of the Lake are based on what we have heard along the way. The selected signals and triggers weave adaptation into our everyday work and build on existing monitoring. Other signals and triggers may be selected during implementation of the Strategy and development of operational plans.
Adaptation Thresholds
An ‘adaptation threshold’ is ‘what people do not want to happen’ (unacceptable conditions).
- Extended disruption to road access from Queenstown
- Frequent or severe damaging or disruptive events
- Loss of amenity and cultural values
- Lengthy displacement of people following extreme events
- Withdrawal of maintenance, decline in levels of service, and increasing cost of repairs
- Unaffordable or high-excess insurance premiums or withdrawal of insurance and bank finance
Signals
A signal is something we can monitor. Signals help us get ready to move to new pathways with enough time for decision making and implementation. However, surprise situations can still occur, and so signals are not a guarantee that an adaptation threshold will be avoided.
- Growth in costs to maintain and repair assets
- Lower level of service (e.g., due to delta growth, riverbed aggradation)
- Frequency, number, or impacts of flooding events reaching nuisance level (includes residential areas, roads, and agricultural land)
- Movement of active river channel towards high-value areas and assets
- Negative impacts on community wellbeing
- Insurance affordability or coverage
Triggers
A ‘trigger’ is a point to review and make decisions on whether to change responses or pathways. Triggers that occur ahead of an adaptation threshold are the most useful for forward planning.
- Decision-making cycles (3-year, 10-year, 30-year) — the usual timing to consider partner agencies' priorities, level of investment, and business cases for changes. Public consultation is also required. These timelines are suitable for staying ahead of gradual changes. It is important that up-to-date analysis and reporting of signals feed into and inform the decision-making process. Signals can be considered both individually and in combination.
- Opportunities — keeping adaptation goals front of mind, looking out for opportunities to take action and make progress.
- Significant natural hazard event with unacceptable outcomes — an integrated, multi-agency approach will be required for effective recovery.
There are two documents, depending on how much detail you’d like to know:
Detailed Report - Draft Natural Hazards Adaptation Strategy for the Head of Lake Whakatipu – this report is comprehensive and brings together technical, social and strategic information that has been gathered over the last five years.
- Summary of the Draft Strategy – this introduces the main ideas discussed in the detailed report. You can read the Draft Strategy summary version on this webpage, or you can download and read the PDF version (the PDF version includes the feedback form at the end of the document).
Adaptation in its simplest form means making changes, adjustments to reduce the risks and impacts from natural hazards events like floods, helping communities stay safe and resilient.
The complex natural hazards in the head of Lake Whakatipu pose risks to the community’s life and their social and economic activities as well as critical infrastructure of the area.
With a changing landscape and climate, these challenges are expected to intensify. While there are no simple solutions, taking adaptation actions now will lay the groundwork for stronger, more resilient communities in the head of Lake Whakatipu now and in the future.
ORC has taken a collaborative approach and has worked closely with the community, mana whenua representatives and partners (Queenstown Lakes District Council, Civil Defence Emergency Management Otago) throughout the process of the development of this Strategy.
We have carried out a series of activities to support the development of the Strategy, including community engagement sessions and technical studies.
The community at the Head of the Lake has been actively engaged over the past five years, participating in meetings, workshops and studies and provided significant feedback.
The contribution of the community is a valuable outcome and plays a crucial role in shaping this Strategy.
The detailed Draft Strategy report is comprehensive and brings together technical, social and strategic information that has been gathered over the last five years.
Below is a summary of the information from the detailed Draft Head of Lake Whakatipu Natural Hazards Adaptation Strategy.
You can also download the summary PDF version.
You can read the detailed PDF version of the Draft Head of Lake Whakatipu Natural Hazards Adaptation Strategy.
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Draft Natural Hazards Adaptation Strategy for Head of Lake Whakatipu | Otago Regional Council
