This programme uses an approach called Dynamic Adaptive Pathways Planning (also referred to as DAPP, or “Adaptation Pathways”).

This approach was developed by the Ministry for the Environment as a blueprint for community-led decision-making in areas affected by natural events and climate change.

This programme is following the Dynamic Adaptive Pathways Planning (also referred to as DAPP, or ‘Adaptation Pathways’). This the approach we are using to develop a longer-term natural hazards adaptation strategy for the area at the head of Lake Wakatipu.

This ‘Adaptation Pathways’ approach has been developed by the Ministry for the Environment as a blueprint for community-led decision making in areas affected by natural events and climate change.

MfE Coastal hazards and climate change: Guidance for local government

This is a hazard management approach developed specifically to help plan and adapt for situations where the future is uncertain – it allows for flexible and adaptive decision-making, and for planning even when there may be uncertainty about the timing or impacts of future changes.

It’s an approach that helps develop long-term responses to natural hazards affected by environmental changes – such as flooding or coastal hazards affected by climate changes. Other types or natural hazard, such as geological or seismic events like landsliding or liquefaction will also be considered within this approach as part of the wider multi-hazard context.

This adaptation approach is often shown as a 10-step decision cycle (as below), and can be simplified as the sequence of five steps shown in the figure below that.

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The programme work to date has been focused on developing the understanding of the natural hazards and natural processes in the head of Lake Wakatipu area.

These studies include:

• Analysis of floodplain changes and river science (University of Canterbury, James Brasington) 
• Development of projected climate changes for the Otago region (NIWA)
• A hazards review and preliminary risk assessment for the head of Lake Wakatipu area (Tonkin + Taylor Ltd)
• Flood hazard modelling for the Dart and Rees Rivers and Glenorchy (Land River Sea Consulting Ltd)
• Geotechnical assessments of the stability of the Rees-Glenorchy floodbank (WSP and Tonkin + Taylor Ltd)
• Analysis of the liquefaction and lateral spreading susceptibility at Glenorchy (Tonkin + Taylor Ltd)
• Assessments of the alluvial fan hazards at the Buckler Burn (GeoSolve Ltd and Massey University)
• Hazard assessment following the April 2022 debris flow on the Queenstown-Glenorchy Road (WSP)

These hazards studies provide a much more detailed understanding of the natural hazards in this area, and will help to inform a community discussion on hazards response. Throughout this period, we have also been in touch with the community.

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Keeping the community updated.

Natural hazards reports,  findings and community presentations 

2022 flood hazard findings and liquefaction hazard assessments 

There will be additional natural hazards studies required for this work programme, such as a study to carry out revised assessments of the Buckler Burn flooding hazard, which is currently being scoped.

Any new findings will be shared when available.

The specific mix of natural hazards and physical processes in the head of Lake Wakatipu is unique to this area, but many other locations in Otago are exposed to the potential impacts of other combinations of natural hazards events.

ORC works to understand these hazards through hazards investigations, and has a responsibility to manage hazard impacts through development of adaptation or hazard management work programmes.

This type of natural hazards adaptation and hazard management programme is a usual part of the ORC natural hazards work activities. ORC has previously completed, or has programmes underway or planned, to develop natural hazards management strategies for many locations within Otago, including;

• South Dunedin (the ‘South Dunedin Future’ project)
• Milton and the Tokomairiro Plain flooding hazards (the ‘Milton 2060’ project)
• Flood risk management strategy for the communities of Lake Wanaka and Wakatipu
• Balclutha and the Clutha Delta - river flooding and coastal hazards
• Water of Leith and Lindsay Creek (Dunedin City) flooding hazards
• Lower Taieri Plain flooding hazards
• Roxburgh debris flow hazards
• Middlemarch flooding and alluvial fan hazards