Otago’s climate is changing. These changes will affect our people, our environments, our biodiversity and our economy. 

It’s important to understand the potential impacts so we can build Otago’s climate resilience. 

Otago Climate Projections

Best experienced on desktop. 

You'll notice that these maps are based on two different future scenarios:

  • SSP2-4.5 'Middle of the road'
  • SSP5-8.5 'Fossil-fuelled development' 

As we get closer to the projected year of 2100, we can see which scenarios are most similar to the actual path we are on. We now know that SSP5-8.5 is no longer considered to be a possible scenario, so we are working to map projections aligned with SSP3-7.0 'Regional rivalry'. These SSP3-7.0 maps will be available by the end of 2026 and will replace the SSP5-8.5 maps. 

What’s causing these changes?

Greenhouse gases trap heat within the Earth’s atmosphere and affect our climate. 

Nationally, Aotearoa New Zealand's major sources of greenhouse gas emissions are agriculture, manufacturing, households and transport/warehousing.  

Otago’s emissions profile is unique and linked to the make-up of our local economy. The main greenhouse gas emissions sources in Otago are agriculture, transport/warehousing, and households. These emissions have been calculated back to 2007. We can see that emissions peaked in 2019, and have since been decreasing.